Viewing cable 03ABUDHABI1088
Title: UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL

IdentifierCreatedReleasedClassificationOrigin
03ABUDHABI10882003-03-05 13:58:00 2011-08-30 01:44:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Abu Dhabi
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Diana T Fritz  05/24/2007 04:56:23 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Search Results

Cable 
Text:                                                                      
                                                                           
      
CONFIDENTIAL

SIPDIS
TELEGRAM                                           March 05, 2003


To:       No Action Addressee                                    

Action:   Unknown                                                

From:     AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI (ABU DHABI 1088 - ROUTINE)         

TAGS:     EPET, PGOV, BEXP, ENRG, ECON, EINV                     

Captions: None                                                   

Subject:  UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL MARKET    

Ref:      None                                                   
_________________________________________________________________
C O N F I D E N T I A L        ABU DHABI 01088

SIPDIS
CXABU:
    ACTION: ECON 
    INFO:   P/M AMB DCM POL 
Laser1:
    INFO:   FCS 

DISSEMINATION: ECON
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: DCM: RALBRIGHT
DRAFTED: ECON:CCRUMPLER
CLEARED: ECON: TWILLIAMS

VZCZCADI685
RR RUEHC RUEHHH RUEHDE RUCPDOC RHEBAAA
DE RUEHAD #1088 0641358
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051358Z MAR 03
FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8704
INFO RUEHHH/OPEC COLLECTIVE
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 2844
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 001088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/RA, NEA/ARP, INR/EC, EB/IEP, EB/CBA 
USDOE FOR INT'L AFFAIRS  OBURN, ALSO CALIENDO 
USDOE FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY  HONDA HUDOME 
USDOC FOR 1000/OC/ 
USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/IEP/ONE 
USDOC FOR 4530/ITA/MAC/ONE/DGUGLIELMI 
4500/ITA/MAC/DAS/WILLIAMSON 
3131/CS/OIO/ANESA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/05/08 
TAGS: EPET PGOV BEXP ENRG ECON EINV TC
SUBJECT:  UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL 
MARKET 
 
¶1.  (U) Classified by DCM Richard Albright, for reasons 1.5 
(B) and (D). 
 
¶2.  (C) The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) Deputy 
CEO, Abdullah Bin Nasser Al-Suwaidi does not believe that 
the oil market would collapse following a military conflict 
with Iraq and removal of Saddam Hussein from power.  In a 
March 3 meeting with Econchief and Econoff, Al-Suwaidi 
posited that oil prices would likely soften a bit -- to the 
$18-20 range -- if Iraq produced at full capacity, but would 
not drop significantly beyond that.  (Note: Others in the 
UAE government, including senior officials at the mammoth 
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which makes the Emirates 
overseas portfolio investments, have privately expressed a 
concern that a drastic drop in oil prices is inevitable, 
down to possibly $8 a barrel.)  Al-Suwaidi elaborated that 
prices are artificially high right now, and that he recently 
signed contracts for the next two months fixing the UAE's 
signature 'Murban' crude at $34 per barrel. 
 
¶3.  (C) Al-Suwaidi does not believe that Iraq's oil 
production will increase substantially in the short term, 
and -- although cheap to produce -- Iraqi oil fields will 
require billions of dollars in investment and several years 
to realize their full potential.  He intimated that the 
Kirkuk and Basra fields, in particular, are in poor 
condition, having been producing for decades.  He also 
suggested that Iraq's claimed reserves may be overstated; in 
any case, he doubted that there are any large, undiscovered 
deposits of oil in Iraq. 
 
Wahba