Viewing cable 07VILNIUS322
Title: LITHUANIA MAY INTERVENE ON MOLDOVA AT MAY 14 GAERC

IdentifierCreatedReleasedClassificationOrigin
07VILNIUS3222007-05-09 13:32:00 2011-08-30 01:44:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Vilnius
VZCZCXRO9946
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVL #0322 1291332
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091332Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1238
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 
TAGS: PREL EUN ETRD KPAL LH RS MD
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA MAY INTERVENE ON MOLDOVA AT MAY 14 GAERC 
 
REF: STATE 60948 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON Chief Rebecca Dunham for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Lithuania may intervene at the May 14 GAERC 
on Moldova.  The GOL sees little chance of making progress 
towards a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia 
given the current climate.  They have suspicions that the 
secretive negotiations concluded between Russia and Moldova 
 
SIPDIS 
on Transnistria may be intended to strengthen the Russian 
argument that a negotiated solution is possible and necessary 
in Kosovo.  End Summary. 
 
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Key Lithuanian Positions 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) We delivered reftel points on the May 14 GAERC agenda 
items to Tomas Gulbinas, head of the MFA's Common Foreign and 
Security Policy Division May 8.  Gulbinas told us that the 
GOL is puzzled by the secretive negotiations between Moldova 
and Russia on Transnistria; conclusions from these 
negotiations were leaked and published by analyst Vladimir 
Socor in mid-April.  Gulbinas told us that the GOL may 
intervene at the May 14 GAERC on Moldova.  He speculated that 
Russia was planning to use the reported talks in connection 
with UNSC negotiations on a resolution for Kosovo.  He 
suspects that the GOR will use this negotiated settlement as 
evidence that a negotiated settlement is possible in Kosovo, 
and veto any resolution that is not agreed to by the Serbs. 
(Another MFA source told us that the GOL has invited Moldovan 
President Voronin to Vilnius June 2 to remind him of his 
non-Russian options.) 
 
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Russia-EU Summit 
---------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Gulbinas told us that he does not expect any progress 
at this GAERC on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement 
(PCA) for Russia.  He noted that in the context of the 
attacks on the Estonian Embassy in Moscow, Russia not having 
resolved the Polish meat issue, Russia having called a 
moratorium on the CFE Treaty, threats made in relation to the 
missile defense system, moves against foreign investors in 
Russia, and no progress on resuming oil flows through the 
spur of the Druzhba Pipeline that feeds Lithuania's Mazeikiu 
Nafta Refinery, he doesn't see any window for potential 
progress.  We asked Gulbinas which of these issues would be 
essential to GOL backing for the PCA; he said it would be 
restoration of oil flows to Mazeikiu Nafta and resolution of 
the Polish meat issue.  He pointed out that the PCA was 
intended for countries that are engaging in rapprochement 
with the EU, not for those defying it. 
 
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Kosovo 
------ 
 
¶4. (C) Gulbinas said that the GOL is strongly in support of a 
UN Security Council Resolution on Kosovo's status.  Gulbinas 
said that the GOL fears that a scenario involving each 
country individually acknowledging independence for Kosovo 
will portend difficulties in other frozen conflicts, most 
notably in the South Caucasus. 
 
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Black Sea Region 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Gulbinas told us that the Governments of Poland and 
Greece have some small reservations about the conclusions on 
the Black Sea Region as they stand now, but that by May 14 
these should be addressed.  He noted that these conclusions 
are not very substantive, and mostly give a mandate for 
further work. 
 
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Other Issues 
------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Gulbinas thanked the USG for the information on the 
other agenda items.  He noted that the GOL agreed with many 
of the points included in the non-paper.  He didn't expect 
any discussion at the GAERC of Austrian energy company OMV's 
decision to enter into a major gas deal with Iran. 
CLOUD